TalkLeft talks about statements by J. Cofer Black, the State Department's Coordinator for Counterterrorism, that the United States is closer to capturing Osama bin Laden. She suggests this could increase the possibility of an "October Surprise," referring to the possibility that the Bush administration might delay public announcement of bin Laden's capture in order to ensure that Bush wins re-election.

"What I tell people, I would be surprised but not necessarily shocked if we wake up tomorrow and he's been caught along with all his lieutenants. That can happen because of the programs and infrastructure in place," he told Geo.

While I would not put it past the Bush administration to use Osama's capture for political gain, I doubt bin Laden is currently waiting in a holding cell in Gitmo. Since Osama was not mentioned during the Republican Convention, I suspect he has not been captured - yet. An "bin Laden bounce" could win Bush the election, so I would not be surprised if additional resources have been devoted to his capture over the past few months.